Every third e-car driver switches back to a combustion engine

The switch to electric cars by German citizens has come to an extreme standstill following the discontinuation of the state purchase premium at the end of 2023. Only 3.9 percent of all vehicle changes from July to September 2024 saw private individuals who previously had a car with a combustion engine switch to a car with a purely electric drive. This is the result of the HUK-E-Barometer of the HUK-Coburg insurance company, which was published today.

Every second person rejects the electric car

Since the beginning of the year, the proportion of people switching to electric cars has only been 3.6%. Compared to the last quarter of 2023, this represents a decline of around 40 percent. And the forecasts of the new E-Barometer suggest that a rapid and significant trend reversal is unlikely unless the German government's subsidy policy changes. Of around 4,200 German citizens surveyed, almost half (47%) say that they find purely electric cars "less good" or "not good at all". And 29 percent only want to buy an all-electric car when only such vehicles are allowed to be registered by law. However, one in three would also be prepared to pay more than ten percent more for a purely electric car than for the same car with a combustion engine.

Measuring the momentum of the switch with private purchases

"We want to use this tool to comprehensively measure the acceptance and speed of the switch to electric cars among the German private population and to illustrate developments," explains Dr. Jörg Rheinländer, the member of the HUK Board of Management responsible for car insurance. "For example, it is now possible for the first time to show conversion rates to e-cars and the dynamics of these conversions in the private population - instead of just the number of newly registered e-cars on German roads." These also include many commercially used vehicles. Rheinländer considers the number of private switchers to be more meaningful when it comes to the implementation of electromobility in Germany.

For this analysis, the new HUK-E barometer summarizes four different factors at a glance: The private stock of e-cars and the increase or decrease in this market share is shown for each quarter. In addition, the rate at which private individuals are switching from cars with combustion engines to purely electric drives is indicated and this development is also shown over time. Finally, the results of a nationally representative quarterly population survey via the YouGov Germany panel are included as further components, for example on the intention to purchase electric cars.

Older drivers with the greatest reservations

Electric cars currently account for just 2.9 percent of the total number of privately owned cars. HUK has developed a dynamic factor for the development of this rate, which signals a significant decline in the course of the year to date: in 2024, the e-quota will probably only increase more slowly than at any time in the last four years.

The strongest indicator for the penetration of electromobility is the rate of private vehicle changes. This is described as alarming because, following the abolition of the purchase premium at the end of 2023, it has fallen from the previous 6.2% to just 3.9% (on average in the current year even just 3.6%) to the level of 2021. The HUK-Baromter recognizes a fundamental acceptance problem here, especially in view of the much larger range of e-cars on offer today, whose technical improvements may indicate an acceptance problem if only four out of every 100 people switch from a combustion engine to an e-drive.

This is also shown by the quarterly population survey. Only just under one in five German citizens aged 16 and over stated that they would "only consider a purely electric car when buying a car in the future". This purchase intention figure has remained almost unchanged since 2021. However, it is currently more than twice as high among Germans under the age of 40 than among older people (28% to 12%).

Switching rate too low for electric car target

Nevertheless, 17% of all respondents stated that they would like to switch to an electric drive system when buying a new or used car in the next two years. Compared to the current switchover rate of around four percent in the third quarter of 2024, this would still be a multiplication. However, this would still not meet the German government's target of 30 percent of all cars on German roads being purely electric in five years' time (target: 15 million electric cars in 2030).

Private individuals are switching again

The behavior of private individuals who have already driven electric cars can also be observed using the new HUK-E-Barometer. Until the end of 2022, the motto was "Once an electric car, always an electric car". The loyalty rate of electric drivers during this time was around 80 percent. Of those electric drivers who switched to a new car, more than 90 percent remained loyal to the electric drive before 2023. And now everything is different: in the current year 2024, more than a third of previous e-car drivers switched back to combustion engines when changing vehicles. (34 percent).

However, hybrid drivers rarely become e-car buyers

The low rate of hybrid drivers switching to electric vehicles is also surprising. This has never been above 20% since 2020. So far in 2024, it has even fallen to an average of eleven percent. The calculation that the majority of hybrid drivers will switch to purely electric vehicles in the next step is therefore not proving correct.

There are also differences in interest in electric cars between former petrol and diesel drivers. For more than three years, the proportion of diesel drivers switching to electric vehicles has been consistently higher than that of petrol drivers.

The East is lagging behind

The -E-Barometer also allows comparisons to be made between the 16 federal states. Since the beginning of the year, the rate of switching from combustion to electric cars has been highest regionally in Bavaria (4.1 percent), Schleswig-Holstein (4.0 percent) and Lower Saxony (3.9 percent). In contrast, the ratios were only about half as high in Saxony-Anhalt (1.9 percent), Saxony (2.1 percent) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (2.2 percent). The highest proportion of electric cars in the private sector is currently in Bavaria at 3.4%. Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony (1.5 percent each) and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (1.6 percent) are at the lower end of the ranking.

Long live your own wallbox

Across Germany, homeowners are also three times more likely to own an electric car than tenants (4.1 percent ownership rate compared to 1.3 percent). And this difference will continue to grow. In the last quarter of 2024, the rate of homeowners switching from combustion cars to electric cars was four times higher than that of tenants (aum)